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Mutation causes epidemics




Mutation causes epidemics

Mutations in other species are not always things, what we hope. This is the thing, what we have seen in COVID-19 epidemics. The problem with this kind of virus is that the symptoms of them are similar to normal influenza, and even the deadliest viruses like Ebola are causing similar effects, with the influenza virus at the beginning of the infection. In the first stage of the infection, the immune reaction is always similar, and that makes viruses so dangerous. 

In the world is always people, who are thinking that they are safe from viruses, but the thing is that there must be some reason for that kind of thing. The attitude of those people is that because in the last year they didn't get the infection, and that's why this kind of thing that some deadly virus would infect person is happening only to the other people, and this is why those people have existed. 

When we are thinking about quarantine and infections the best way to suffuse virus-agent is just being near others and in the closed hall, transferring the virus from one person to another would happen very effectively. In closed space, where are people very near together and people are pulling air deep in the lungs, would one infected person transfer virus to even tens or hundreds of people. 

Was the Swine-virus H1N1 pandemic in 2009 (1), and SARS (Or SARS CoV) (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome)(2) in 2002 the warning, that the harmful mutations in the genomes happen more often than we have expected. Also, SARS is a mutated coronavirus that is transferred from animals to humans. The reason why SARS along with COVID-1 is from China is in that culture people are living near animals, and that makes the viruses easier to transfer from animals to humans. 

The H1N1 was first reported to show up in the USA, and that shows that the origin of the viruses can be everywhere. So the searching viruses from people, who are coming from the Far East and Africa is not enough(3). The transformation of the virus can happen everywhere, and China is not the only place, where people are going near animals. That happens everywhere, where people are growing cattle, and the next H1N1-style epidemics can begin in South America, China or Europe. And that makes the epidemics so hard to predict. 

In normal cases, one infected person can transfer the infection to 1-2 people. So how effective is the suffuse of the virus? The answer to that is depending on the structure of the virus. If the genetic material of the virus is stored under two layers, what makes the virus look like a little bit cell, it can keep an ability to transfer the genetic material to the cells farther than a virus, which has only one layer for protecting the genomes of that thing. 

When we are facing the question about the infection of two viruses at the same time, we must say that the probability of that thing is very low. But there is a probability for the infection that causes by two viruses at the same time. That kind of thing is so-called "Black Swans", things that are hard to predict, but what is possible. 

And do you know what is funny in this kind of pandemics? We know that sometimes, somewhere the genome of the viruses will be changed, and cause epidemics. We know that sometimes tourists are getting the infections, and suffuse the viruses and bacteria. But the prediction of the epidemics is still very bad. 

When people are seeing that there is increasing epidemics in some areas, we would face angry comments, that should people give a blood test before they are coming to our country. But the thing like SARS, swine virus pandemic, what was caused by H1N1 virus in 2009 and COVID-19 should have open the eyes of the people, that something should be done also in this area. 



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