The biggest of the wild card effects is the human factor.

 The biggest of the wild card effects is the human factor.

The human factor is the thing that makes predictions very difficult. 

The thing is that we can predict how the large gas masses behave in the universe. We can make algorithms that predict if there is some kind of exoplanet or civilization near some star. But we cannot predict how the human race and our society are behaving. The thing called: "the human factor" is one of the biggest of the so-called "wild card effects". 

The wild card means the surprising and non-predictable thing that has a large-scale influence on the environment. And the power of human nature is visible in the cases like COVID-19 vaccination programs. It is predicted that authorities can remove limitations caused by pandemics when the level of vaccinated people reaches 80%.  But the percentual number of the vaccinated people would rise hardly over 80%. 

And that thing is one of the examples of the human factor. All people would not take vaccines even if against the sense. These kinds of human factors are causing problems for making predictions for the future. When people are against something, they just want to follow their road even if that thing is against their benefit. 

Social media is one of the most impressive examples of wild cards. 

The cases that the human factor would terminate all predictions are examples of why computers cannot predict the future. When the AI is making the prediction it will collect all data about the cases, and then it will see are the similar signals visible in nature. But when we are thinking about technology advantages and development process that thing is out of control. 

There is one wild card that is totally out of control and that is social media. That thing is hard to control. And then another and even larger size thing is the internet. Nobody controls what people are doing at their part-time. And the information of the programming is easy to find from the net. So every person in the world can begin their artificial intelligence project. 

There is nobody who leads the R&D processes that are basing the open-source. Those kinds of things are self-controlling. And that thing means that no leader can stop those processes. When a developer makes something the response of the product is in the developer's seat. 

The same developers that can make the algorithm that can search data from the internet can also make spy programs and computer viruses. And that is the problem. But those programs can also use for searching drug dealers and slave traders. So are the surveillance programs so bad? Or is in those programs something good? 

Even if own projects by using the computers that belong to a company are prohibited everybody can buy their computer for that kind of thing. And the recommendation is that for own business is used own computers. 

The wild data causes turbulence in the environment. And the turbulence can cause. That even the strongest signals are covering. This thing makes traditional leadership very hard. The movement from the upper-controlled process will turn to a self-controlled process. And this thing makes the next challenge for society. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_card_(foresight)

https://thoughtandmachines.blogspot.com/

The new kind of modular transport aircraft would be the hybrid

The new kind of modular transport aircraft would be the hybrid

Sometimes there have been discussions about the new kind of modular cargo plane. In that concept, the cargo plane has two parts, the independent cargo modules what might bring in the airfield by train, and then those modules would just load inside the cargo plane, what could be used for the long-range transport. Those cargo modules can be made for cargo, or they can have equipped for passenger modules. In wildest dreams, those modules can flight independently to the long-range cargo plane, and that means that those modules can load in somewhere else.

The idea of the VTOL transport would be the quadcopter type vehicle, what can fly straight in the other aircraft by using the similar hatches what the space shuttle uses. In this concept is the two aircraft. The bigger one what is meant for the fast and long-range transportation and the other vehicles are actually the cabins, what can fly straight in the bigger aircraft. And maybe this thing seems quite complicated but I will write it in here because it seems interesting. By using those modules would the same long-range cargo plane carry either passengers or cargo.

And those VTOL (Vertical Take Off and Landing)-planes or modules could be made that way, that they can carry also by using railways. This means that this kind of system allows loading passengers or cargo far away from the airport, and then the train will bring those modules near the airport. Then those capsules will fly to the transport plane by using electric motors. And that would be a very radical concept. But as you see this kind of visions are very uncomfortable and difficult to make, but maybe after 20-30 years later they are in everyday use. Or they might be lost in history.

There are a couple of examples of the things that have been very good, but they have just forgotten. And this kind of modular hybrid solution for the next generation cargo and civilian aviation could be too revolutionary. There are many things, which makes this thing safer and cleaner than any automobile, because of all parts of the transportation system are operating with clean energy.

The trains and VTOL-modules can use electricity and how clean the electricity is depended on the way, how the electricity has been produced, and the long-range transporter can use hydrogen as the fuel. Hydrogen is a clean fuel and the thing, what is left behind the hydrogen motor is water steam. This makes it a very suitable fuel in aviation, but why not in turbines of power plants and cars cannot use this fuel, what is environment-friendly.