The biggest of the wild card effects is the human factor.

 The biggest of the wild card effects is the human factor.

The human factor is the thing that makes predictions very difficult. 

The thing is that we can predict how the large gas masses behave in the universe. We can make algorithms that predict if there is some kind of exoplanet or civilization near some star. But we cannot predict how the human race and our society are behaving. The thing called: "the human factor" is one of the biggest of the so-called "wild card effects". 

The wild card means the surprising and non-predictable thing that has a large-scale influence on the environment. And the power of human nature is visible in the cases like COVID-19 vaccination programs. It is predicted that authorities can remove limitations caused by pandemics when the level of vaccinated people reaches 80%.  But the percentual number of the vaccinated people would rise hardly over 80%. 

And that thing is one of the examples of the human factor. All people would not take vaccines even if against the sense. These kinds of human factors are causing problems for making predictions for the future. When people are against something, they just want to follow their road even if that thing is against their benefit. 

Social media is one of the most impressive examples of wild cards. 

The cases that the human factor would terminate all predictions are examples of why computers cannot predict the future. When the AI is making the prediction it will collect all data about the cases, and then it will see are the similar signals visible in nature. But when we are thinking about technology advantages and development process that thing is out of control. 

There is one wild card that is totally out of control and that is social media. That thing is hard to control. And then another and even larger size thing is the internet. Nobody controls what people are doing at their part-time. And the information of the programming is easy to find from the net. So every person in the world can begin their artificial intelligence project. 

There is nobody who leads the R&D processes that are basing the open-source. Those kinds of things are self-controlling. And that thing means that no leader can stop those processes. When a developer makes something the response of the product is in the developer's seat. 

The same developers that can make the algorithm that can search data from the internet can also make spy programs and computer viruses. And that is the problem. But those programs can also use for searching drug dealers and slave traders. So are the surveillance programs so bad? Or is in those programs something good? 

Even if own projects by using the computers that belong to a company are prohibited everybody can buy their computer for that kind of thing. And the recommendation is that for own business is used own computers. 

The wild data causes turbulence in the environment. And the turbulence can cause. That even the strongest signals are covering. This thing makes traditional leadership very hard. The movement from the upper-controlled process will turn to a self-controlled process. And this thing makes the next challenge for society. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_card_(foresight)

https://thoughtandmachines.blogspot.com/

How to create software, what predicts the future?

How to create software, what predicts the future?

This program doesn't predict the future. It calculates probabilities, what is the synonym for things what measured in percent. It will calculate the relationships with the variables and that means that it would not predict the future. It gives the vision or model or tip, what would be the next action of the object, what is under the observation.

This kind of computer program bases the statistics. In this program, history is collecting similar cases, what want to predict, and those cases would store in the database. Then the database used to calculate the probability of the cases A and B. That means that the database consists the cases A and B, and those can be used to calculate the probability  ((A/B*100) or in the opposite case( B/A*100)) of those opportunities.

If we are making the database of the political elections the database is easy to make. There are only two possibilities, that the thing would be done or it will be denied, and that thing would cause the variables of the computer program and it's the database are easy to make.

And the data is easy to get for that kind of program, what mission is to calculate the two variables. But the thing is that the program would tell only the percents of a certain type of voting. In this kind of case, the database would need specific data of the cases, which are made in similar cases before. And that means that collecting the data is the problem.

But if we would want to make a database of the movement of some animal, we can use the turning direction as the variable. In this case, collecting the variable, but the problem is that there are very many variables in this kind of database. There are many types of turnings, what animal can make. There are gentle curves and steep turnings, and the speed, what animal used has the mean if we want to make the databases of that kind of thing.

So if we want to make a precise calculation we need precise data of the object, what behaviors we want to predict. The behavior of a thinking organism is the thing what makes all prediction very difficult if they do not consist only probabilities of the poker hands and other kinds of stable things. Or the makers of the probability calculations must start to think, that the people who give the playing cards for the calculation demonstrations are honest.

Probability is not exact information. It just helps to predict some things, by calculating the measured in percent change, that the animal would turn to some direct or some card is taken from the pack of cards? In the most common pack of cards is 52 cards. So if we want to calculate the possibility that the card, what rises from the pack is an ace, we must just say that probability for that case is 1/52*100=1.92307692308 (c. 1,92%)

Probability doesn't take in the count the thing, that somebody could manipulate the variable. This means that the person can take all the aces from the pack of cards. Or that somebody has been trained the animal turn in a certain way. This can destroy the calculations because of the data, what is stored in the database, what the program uses is somehow manipulated.

But when we are creating the probability of the turning direction of the animals, we must follow those objects very intensively. And when we are creating the trusted database of the turning direction of the animal, we must follow the turns in certain situations tens of thousands of times, and that helps to make the database, what the computer program can use for calculating the probability of the turning direction.

By using modern technology like GPS collar, which would also send the speed of an animal,  we can collect the database of the turning directions in certain situations. And then if there are connected two very small cameras the algorithm can find out in which situation the animal, what is under the observations makes some movement, the system, and human operators can find out are some movements reserved for some certain situations like escaping or attacking. And this thing would help to create the behavior model of some animals like Leopards or Tasmanian Devils.