The bad situation of Donald Trump and the problems with tactics, which are used in the counter-guerilla operations.

The bad situation of Donald Trump and the problems with tactics, which are used in the counter-guerilla operations.

So Turkey hits Syria and the problem is that it is part of NATO, which means it is one of the allies of the USA. And another problem is that there are Kurds, who are also the allies of the USA what makes this thing little nit more complicated than normal people might think.

The thing in that area is that there are two parties on the Kurd side, another is YDF, which is a so-called official organization, and the other is PKK, which is classified as a terrorist organization in Turkey. So what makes this case so problematic. The thing is that the relationship between armed groups and governments in that area is also very complicated.

When we are saying that Turkey is allied with the USA that doesn't mean that the generals of the USA army control straight the military forces of Turkey. And the thing that makes this situation "interesting" is that the USA denied selling the F-36 fighters to Turkey, which choose the S-300 missile system from Russia for air defense.

The reason for that is Russia could calibrate it's air defense missiles to shoot down those fighter-bombers. And of course, Turkey doesn't like that kind of advantage in the relationship between it and its other allies. The position of Donald Trump is not very nice anyway, because of his period as the President of the United States of America is the internal political crises, and his way to act is far away from the way how people have adjusted to seeing in the international politics.

So this is the reason, why commenting about this kind of situation is so complicated. When we are thinking about the situation in Syria there is no military answer. And the violence increases violence. When people are facing bombardment that thing causes hate and increases the support of the PKK and other radical groups, as we have seen in other places on Earth.

I know this might mean a really cold way to think, but a good example of this kind of advantage is the situation in Israel. The Israeli military force crushed the PLO in 1982 and after that, the policy in that country has been that because Israel is the stronger side, it must not negotiate with the opposite side.

And in that area, the conflict has continued as terrorism and guerilla warfare. The tactic of IDF is to use aircraft and helicopters with smart weapons against guerilla targets. Those tactics cause hate, and of course, those strikes are effective and they are keeping Israeli forces safe.

Some people believe that airstrikes are used because of the psychological aspect, what is two side thing. Airstrikes are coming like lightning from the skies, which makes fear in the mind of the enemy. But also that thing makes sure that the distance with own troops and enemy is long enough.

And the own troops are not facing "negative psychological effect", which means that the own troops are not spending time in the homes of the opposite side. That thing is supporting the terrorist agenda, which wants to show their enemy as a monster. And airstrikes guarantee that there is no trace of the terrorists, who are not in place at that moment.

We always forget those normal soldiers, who are operating in the field are they special forces or tank men are sometimes forced to make tough decisions. And those field operators are also under the psychological influence of the regular representers of the opposite side. That's why helicopters and airplanes are a better way to scout and fast strike operations.

They can track mobile telephones, and then shoot their missiles against those targets, but in those cases, the person who uses the mobile telephone might be different than a person, who has bought that device. That means that airstrikes are effective against targeted mobile telephones.

But they are causing that tracking the terrorists or the user of that telephone is difficult because there is no DNA or other samples in those targets. There are also no people for interrogations, what is, of course, a good thing for terrorists.  And there is a possibility that terrorists are waiting for the last second and then leave the house, what might confuse the intelligence of Israel, that they are dead.

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The "war against terrorism" and when impossible turn to reality

The "war against terrorism" and when impossible turn to reality

The problem with modeling the real world by using mathematics is that creating formulas, which allows making the calculations what are creating series, where is probably millions of different calculations possible. When we are thinking the behavior of the gas molecules, and try to make formulas, what is calculating the probability of the mankind behavior we are close to creating the psychohistory. The method of predicting the future is to compare the things, what happened in the past to the things, what is happening now.

And if we are planning to predict wars or something like that by comparing the behavior of the people before the past wars to the things, what is happening now we are facing thing, what is known as "Black Swan". This means phenomenon, what is extremely unusual but possible. That thing caused that Saddam Hussein underestimated the US military will or political support for the attack to Iraq.

The reason, what changed the public opinion was the terror strike against the USA by using highjacked aircraft. That caused the death of the thousands of American citizens and the authorization to attack Iraq and Afghanistan was given from the highest positions from the government. The attack against WTC tower is one part of the tragedy, which is known as the "war against terrorism". The thing is that the attack in 11.9.2001 caused the most unpopular president in the history of the United States of America got the second period and that thing was full of war and bombing.

The thing that the tough touch like missile strikes against the terrorist targets was justified, and after that day even the nuclear strikes against those targets would be allowed. That attack caused that even the nations, what was against the USA supported the military actions is one thing, what brings one thing in the mind, and that is that Osama bin Laden made damages only for his ideology. The thing in terrorism is that it has been covered in some mountains before the high-profile attacks against the western world.

The war against terrorism is a very good example, how one unexpected thing cut the road, what was predicted. The reason, why Saddam Hussein was involved in the conflict is that he broke the human rights openly, and then gave support for that attack. There are things in international politics what are not tolerated. And one thing is to support terrorists. Libyan leader Quaddafi was another person, who miscalculated the tolerance of the international community.

There is no proof about the things, what is claimed the next part of the text. The rumors about living Quaddaffi might be released for psychological warfare, but the evidence, what is given about this case is the body, what lay on the dirty mattress, and in the pictures were no bullet holes. But as I have written the delivering that kind of information is meant for the make enemies scary, because that man might be interrogated by using chemicals like LSD and sodium Amytal. We all know that Quaddaffi had many secrets, what many people want to forget.

There was something suspicious about the claiming that NATO was given prisoners for Libyan secret police for interrogations. And there are rumors, that Quaddaffi might be alive. The rumors base the idea, that Quaddaffi was injected with tetrodotoxin and that chemical agent made that man "zombie", and made him look like dead.

And there are rumors, that he would be kept in some secret place. But the net is full of rumors, and there were a very little number of people, who would cry for Quaddaffi, but one of those persons might be the United Nations investigator, who would try to use Quaddaffi for getting information about the relationship between Libya and NATO. But if that person would be dead, those secrets would go to the grave with him. And there is no evidence that the Quaddaffi is living.

Terror creates terror

Terror creates terror

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Terrorists never want peace.

In the Eastern at Sri Lanka were happen sad terror attack, what took many lives, and the thing would cause more and more antipathy against Muslims, and this is what those people want. The leaders of the radical Islamic movement want to isolate and cause the hate against the Muslim community because the traditional way of life of the Muslims would be danged, and that would also danger the position of those far-wing fanatics and their leaders.

One reason for the terror strikes is that those people want war because their social position depends on the war and hate. If the peace would be real in someday, the investigations would uncover the relationships to the terror organizations and Middle-East businessmen, and the punishments would be very big, and those people don't need any kind of investigations about their relationships between the radical movements and some drug dealers and organized crime like Mafia.

Terrorists have connections with opium dealers

The terrorist organizations would get their financial support from the drugs like opium poppies, what they are growing in the cultures at their support areas. Also, the position of the leaders of some nations is depending on that there are worse people in some desert, and that's why their armies can have military technology from the West. And if the western world is supporting some leader, Russia and China would support another leader because they want to make sure about their benefits in the Middle-East. And one of those benefits is the weapon sell to those countries.

Those people live in five stars hotels and they would not want peace, because they are selling guns to those organizations who are acting as the guards for the opium dealers, who will carry their product to Russia and other nations. Most of those people would need endless conflict because of their way to lead their movements is very tough. If they suspect the traitor, that person would be executed immediately. When we are thinking about the anti-Islamic opinions in the Far-East, those people have the right for their opinions.

The thing what makes the situation problematic is that the counter strikes against terrorists are actually justified, and this is the thing, what is problematic. The counter-strikes against terror camps are often happened by using aircraft and in this case, the location of the camp is very important to know, and for that period the strike force would use agents or recon teams, what mission is to locate the target and send it's map coordinates to aircraft, what will strike to that terrorist target. Sometimes there would be sold the weapons to the terrorists, what are equipped the GPS-system, which allows the CT (Counter Terror) team locate the weapon storage, and those storages can be destroyed by air strikes.

In those strikes is used sometimes the FAE (Fuel Air Explosives), what mission is to destroy the area, and also the purpose of bombardment is to destroy the weapons in that camp, and use of air strikes deny that the assistants would steal the guns from the camps. The FAE bomb destruction area is very easy to calculate and the ground team can evacuate outside the area. In this case, the trust of the ground team is very important. If they locate the wrong target, there would be civilian casualties.

The underage persons are also problematic for the anti-terrorism units because of almost every terror organization has under-age fighters. And the thing, what makes the organization the terror-group, is that it strikes against the civilian targets. That means that when somebody would walk on the street the death would come like lightning from the sky when some car would explode. This is the thing in the war against terrorism.

Terrorist training camps are far in the desert. 

Terrorist organizations would kill people, and the training would happen in another country. International law would say, that every nation has the right to protect itself. And then the death comes from the skies. But if the target is chosen wrong, the victims of those strikes would be innocent people. The nations like the USA and Russia have spy satellites, which can locate the weapons from the camps, but the other countries have less sophisticated systems for that kind of operations.

Suicide strikes are in the main role in modern terrorism. The philosophy of those strikes is that dead terrorists would not tell anything about the reasons, what caused that they chose the career as the terrorist. If those people would tell, what kind of circumstances they were recruited, and when the recruiters suggested the attack, that would help to locate the risk persons, and also deny the recruitment of the persons, who are living in the western countries. The western passports are a very wanted thing in the terrorist organizations because they are allowing to travel across the borders and buying the apartments for storages and bases, where the cells can wait the order to strike.

Many of those terrorists are dying in their strikes, and that means there are no witnesses who would tell, what has been happening during the recruitment process. And that thing is a very big problem when we are looking for the supporters of terrorists. Those supporters sell or deliver weapons to those organizations and train those suicide bombers. Those people are the dangerous part of the organizations, what names have been written in history by blood.