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Can the Ukrainian war escalate?


Image:) Taiwanese F-16 fighters. 


There is always the possibility that the war starts to spread. In the same way, the Ukrainian war can escalate. And that is one of the biggest problems with NATO. Otherwise, NATO could abstain from giving more weapons to Ukraine. But that thing is the mark for Russia that it can make everything that it wants. 

Those signals are always dangerous because the next place where Russian leaders read history could be the Baltic sea. The historic reasons or the history that Russia someday owned some areas justifies that Russia can send troops to that land area and take it under its control. If we are thinking about history same way Germany can insist on the Kaliningrad or Königsberg area from Russia because that area once belonged to Germany. 

But I think that Putin might answer that the Kaliningrad area is not on the discussion list. And that means the only nation that has the right to insist on some areas using historical arguments is Russia. And if we will stop to deliver weapons to Ukraine, that means that we show the green light to Putin that he can make everything that he wants. 


The Ukrainian conflict can also escalate to Asia. 


The Ukrainian situation can escalate to another side of the World. Chinese can seize the opportunity when the world is watching Europe and make aggression against Taiwan. China thinks that Taiwan is part of itself. Chinese shot missiles at the Japanese territorial water and made provocative military exercises in the strait between Taiwan and China. 

China also sends over 20 jet fighters to training missions against Taiwan. And Taiwan sends F-16 Viper jetfighters that are equipped with Harpoon missiles airborne. Taiwan claims that the Chinese exercises are simulated military action against Taiwan. And the thing is that China trusts its modernized military forces. There is always the threat that China thinks that the world is not interested in what it does. And then it can attack Taiwan or some other country. 

China increased its territorial water in the South-China Sea by using artificial islands. And when some actor in the conflict holds nuclear weapons. The existence of nuclear weapons means that the owner of those weapons can use them in conflicts. China trusts its new hypersonic missiles. And new jetfighters along with new strategic bombers. They increased PLAs (People's Liberation Army) strike capacity. 

It trusts their pinpoint accuracy and their ability to knock out the US carriers. China wants to get more voice in the global environment. And that's why it is turning more aggressive. The global environment and the turn of media focus to Ukraine caused China could build new strategies. 


Image:) https://eurasiantimes.com/taiwans-fully-loaded-f-16-vipers-armed-with-deadly-harpoon/

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